← Grand Library League S2 Finals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Grand Library League S2 Finals
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.9%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1286
· range 1206–1366
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1184
Q3 1358
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.3% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 19.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
